USPS network has operated successfully at today’s volumes–April 19, 2016

The U.S. Postal Service Historian reports on our postal system since 1789, which is 226 years through 2015. Most of the recent discussion about mail volume has focused on the most recent seven years in which volume has fallen from over 200 billion pieces per year to 154 billion in 2015. It helps to put this recent decline in a longer-term context:

USPS total mail volume

• Years under 50 billion: 164 (1789-1952)
• Years between 50 and 100 billion: 27 (1953-1979)
• Years between 100 and 150 billion: 7 (1980-1986)
• Years between 150 and 200 billion: 19 (1987-1998 and 2009-2015)
• Years over 200 billion: 10 (1999-2008)

Since 1987, 66 percent of the years have had between 150 and 200 billion pieces of mail. Since 1980, 72 percent of the years have had between 100 and 200 billion pieces. After taking 191 years to reach 100 billion pieces of mail in 1980, USPS mail volume doubled to 200 billion in only 19 years. The boom years in the economy in the 1980s and 1990s sent mail volume well above its current neighborhood of 150 billion where USPS has operated much of recent decades.

While downsizing can be very difficult and painful, the fact that USPS has much recent experience operating successfully below 200 billion pieces should engender optimism that it can be done again without charging prices above the general inflation rate.