March 25, 2021

February Results: Question the Plan Forecast

Everyone who is taking as given the USPS forecast of a ten-year loss of $160 billion absent its new plan should think twice.  The whole plan is predicated on this expected cumulative loss.

But USPS is profitable five months into FY2021.  It has made $52 million, which seems small, but the plan was a loss of ($2.371 billion), and at this point last year the agency had lost ($3.613 billion).

The new plan projects a $9.7 billion loss by the end of this year. They will have to lose more than $1 billion per month for the rest of this year to meet projections. If they can’t get this year right, how reliable are the projections for 2020-2031?