February 3, 2016

In accordance with the recent order by the Postal Regulatory Commission, the USPS filed its first bi-weekly “countdown to exigent emancipation” report on February 1. The report gives us some indication of when to expect the removal.

As of January 31, USPS had $377 million in surcharge revenue left to go ($4.634 billion cap minus $4.257 billion collected). During the four months ended January 21, their run rate was $6 million per day ($736.3 million/123 days). If that rate continues, they would hit the cap around Sunday, April 3 ($377 million/$6 million per day = 63 days).

The $6 million daily run rate was during the “peak season,” so it probably will take longer to reach the cap, but election mail will help speed it up. USPS likes to make rate changes on Sundays, which April 3 and April 10 are. So April 10 seems the most likely price reduction date, but it could stretch to April 17.

The PRC also ordered that the USPS must give 45 days’ advance notice of the exigent emancipation date. The 45 days’ notice dates would be February 18 for April 3, February 25 for April 10, or March 3 for April 17. Of course, the Postal Service could choose to exceed the minimum requirement of 45 days and make the announcement sooner to enable a smoother transition.