February 12, 2025

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), which increased by 3.0 percent from January 2024 and increased by 0.5 percent from December 2024 (seasonally adjusted).
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

The Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) CPI price cap authority for a United States Postal Service (USPS) July 2025 market dominant rate adjustment now stands at 2.677 percent. See the table below for the estimated July 2025 rate authority including one more CPI report. To use the February CPI as the basis for the July 2025 rate increase, USPS will have to file before April 10, 2025 (when the March CPI is released).

Note well: Because USPS gave large promotional rate discounts last year, primarily for the growth incentive, it will be increasing non-promotional Marketing Mail rates on average an additional 2.3 percent above the official PRC rate authority and non-promotional First-Class Mail rates on average an additional 0.6 percent. This assumes that the PRC will verify its initial ruling that promotional rates are rates of general applicability. It would be a continuation of the usual price cap math practice by the USPS and the PRC.

Compensatory classes include First-Class Mail and Marketing Mail. Periodicals is the non-compensatory class. Individual products that are non-compensatory must increase by at least an extra 2 percent, the main one being Marketing Mail Flats.