Almost anything can happen during the lame duck session of the U.S. Congress. A new postal law could pass. But we think the odds have dropped for the following reasons:

1. Congress has higher priorities on its plate. With the surprise victory by President-Elect Donald Trump, and Republican control of both houses of Congress, USPS reform legislation has much competition for the time and attention of Congress.

2. Bi-partisanship is on life support. While bi-partisanship characterized the postal bill, it no longer seems as important to the House Oversight Committee. In fact, the Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) has said he will continue to lead investigations of Hillary Clinton’s emails and will not pursue potential conflicts of interest in the new administration at least until after it takes office.

On the other hand, Ranking Member Elijah Cummings (D-MD) and all the Democrats on the committee have demanded the opposite. They want the committee to probe Trump’s potential conflicts of interest immediately.

3. Passage just got more complicated. While many had thought that a “cleaner” House version of a postal bill stood a better chance of passing, a group of 27 Senators sent a letter on November 17, saying they are “deeply concerned by the lack of service improvements and protection provisions in the [House] bill.”

The Senate demands for reliability, accountability, transparency, enforcement, and continual review in any postal bill complicate potential passage and would add unfunded costs to the Postal Service.

4. The Postal Service is nowhere near a financial crisis. Such a crisis was often cited as the most compelling reason to change the law. The USPS Office of Inspector General reported on October 20 that the Postal Service has as much as 36 days of cash on hand. This is very healthy and far from the single digits experienced after the recession in 2007-09.

The Postal Service just reported its third annual operating profit in a row, totaling $3.2 billion, and mail volume has stabilized above 150 billion pieces for five years in a row. USPS management also touted great improvements in delivery service.

It is quite an accomplishment for the USPS, the PRC, and the existing system, that our Postal Service survived the worst recession since the Great Depression without a law change. And now the USPS prospers.